Polling companies are engaged by a range of organisations to measure public opinion on different issues. Those results are then released publicly. Recently, there has been a lot of discussion about where One Nation sits in polls that measure voting intention.

The credibility of polling companies depends on accuracy. These firms are paid to gauge public opinion across many sectors, not just politics, and their reputations rise or fall on whether their results reflect reality.

To do this, polling companies select a representative cross-section of the community. This is done methodically, using demographic weighting to reflect age, gender, location and other factors that mirror the broader population.

Of course, polls are not perfect. History gives us some famous examples. Brexit. Donald Trump’s victories. Scott Morrison’s win in 2019. Polls also significantly underestimated the scale of Labor’s victory at the 2025 election, though few people notice when the winner’s margin is wrong rather than the winner itself.

Recently, a former Nationals leader and Deputy Prime Minister wrongly claimed polling on One Nation might be wrong, citing early polling on the Voice referendum. What is often forgotten is that while polling initially showed support for the Voice, sentiment shifted as Australians examined the proposal more closely. As that happened, polling clearly showed the referendum heading for defeat, which is exactly what occurred.

The attached graph shows a clear emerging trend. One Nation’s rise is steep. Almost vertical. This is not a single poll, but a trend line produced by aggregating multiple polls over time.

Trend or aggregate polling is not simple. It involves weighting polls based on the historical accuracy of each polling company, how experienced they are, and how reliable their past results have been. This work is typically done by trained analysts and academics.

There are further complications. Occasionally, even a highly trusted polling company will produce an outlier poll that shows one party far ahead of all others. When this happens, that data may be retrospectively weighted down so trend lines are not distorted or exaggerated.

One Nation will speak openly about polling when it shows us performing well because it tells us our message on unity and tackling the cost of living is cutting through. When polling shows we are struggling, that matters too. It tells us we have more work to do to earn trust and explain our policies clearly.

For the first time in Australia’s modern political history, the two major parties are being seriously challenged. Some will deny what the polling is showing. Others will insist it cannot translate into real results. We argue both are wrong, but opinions like this are a democratic right. 

Another long-held myth now being exposed is where One Nation draws its votes from. Polling increasingly shows that One Nation takes votes from Labor as well as the Liberals and Nationals. What current polling suggests is that a vote for the old major parties delivers more of the same. Only One Nation is genuinely challenging Labor.

At the end of the day, every Australian has an equal say on election day. That day is still some distance away, and there is no guarantee polling will remain where it is.

What is guaranteed is that One Nation will continue to put forward a positive message. A message of hope. A better future for families. And a stronger economy under Pauline Hanson’s leadership.