Recently, there's been a surge of polls considering the Voice referendum, with a notable shift in public opinion polls. Evidence from multiple sources suggests that the polls for the referendum are narrowing, and this is a matter of urgency for those who are keen to defeat this proposal.
- The Roy Morgan Poll
One of the most recent polls is from Roy Morgan, which conducted a survey last week, involving 905 respondents. Their results indicate a relatively modest lead for the "no" camp, standing at 50-45. The detailed state-by-state, gender, age, and party support breakdowns will be released soon, but this already paints a clear picture that the race is tightening.
- The Resolve Strategic Document
An extensive 100-page document from Resolve Strategic delves deep into the week's poll, involving a sizable sample of 4728 participants. The differences in numbers between this poll and Newspoll’s 58-34 result hinge majorly on the 18-to-34 age bracket. While this demographic is admittedly challenging to poll, it seems to be pivotal for the outcome. Resolve Strategic pegs this group at 62-38 in favour of "yes," contrasting with Newspoll’s findings of 49% "no" and 46% "yes."
There is evidence that the weighting given by Newspoll is incorrect, and Resolve’s methodology is correct. This spells trouble, as polls that correctly weight the younger cohort of voters show a surge of youth voters for the voice.
Let's not take a ‘No’ vote for granted. We need to have the proposal comprehensively defeated.
- Indigenous Support
Perhaps the most striking takeaway from the polls is the change in Indigenous support. This is the first poll since early this year to offer any insight into this demographic's stance. Although this sub-sample of 420 participants doesn’t entirely capture remote communities, the result is 59-41, favouring "yes." This is significantly narrower than the once-cited 80-20 figures earlier in the year, proving those who tout that figure as sprout misinformation. Real Aboriginals living in remote communities may vote significantly against the proposal, which will be an exciting result to watch on the night.
- The Focaldata Findings
British polling firm Focaldata also emphasises an age-related split that aligns more with Resolve Strategic than Newspoll. Their multi-level regression analysis, which estimates outcomes for each House of Representatives seat, has sparked much discussion. Pollsters like Kos Samaras critique its lack of demographic nuances, especially concerning education and ethnicity. Shaun Ratliff comments that a sample size twice as large as the 4000 they used is essential for excellent results.
It would be a brave person to take seriously polling that doesn’t get the age demographic right, which may result from this poll. Saturday night will tell, but this poll rings alarm bells for that reason.
With the margin steadily narrowing and the variety of polls presenting different angles on the issue, the urgency for those advocating a "no" vote in the Voice referendum has never been higher. Engaging with all demographics, especially the younger generation, will be crucial in the coming days. It's not just about the numbers; it's about understanding the nuances, the sentiments, and the drivers behind each vote.
In short, folks, it's time you sat down the voting grandkids and told them to unlearn all that nonsense their commo teachers have brainwashed them into thinking and bring them a dose of reality about how the world works.