There are encouraging signs that momentum is behind One Nation. But let’s look at the facts and approach our steady rise in the polls with clear eyes.

Where We Were Last Time

Before the last election, our aggregated poll numbers sat around 8%, according to respected polling analysis sites

Some polls had us at 10%, others at 7%, but the average was about 8%. On election day, we achieved 6.4% nationally, a big step forward from our 2022 results, which delivered two new senators and the re-election of Senator Malcolm Roberts.

The difference between 8% in the polls and 6.4% on the day might be easy to explain. Polling is not an exact science. That same polling underestimated Labor’s final tally, and a 1.6% gap is well within the margin of error.

It’s also important to note that pollsters rarely list every micro-party in their questions. In practice, some of our potential vote was siphoned off to those groups. Individually they’re statistically irrelevant, but collectively they took roughly 1.6% of the national vote. Proof of this is clear: One Nation secured three Senate seats largely thanks to preference flows from other parties.

The Risk of Fragmented Votes

Votes for micro-parties end up helping Labor and the Greens dominate the Senate. We saw this in South Australia, Victoria, and Tasmania, where radical left senators were elected ahead of One Nation candidates. If those splintered votes had consolidated behind One Nation, we’d hold far more leverage today to keep the Albanese government in check.

In simple terms: voting for a micro-party has delivered the Senate to Albanese.

Where We Are Now

Right now, our aggregated support is sitting around 10%. Some polls put us even higher; 12% nationally, 16% in New South Wales, and 12% in Victoria.

Impressive figures, no doubt.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. There is no election tomorrow. Australia will head to the polls before the US or UK, but not just yet. One Nation’s surge will be tested before Nigel Farage or the dream ticket of J.D. Vance and Erika Kirk have their own moment.

Between now and then, numbers will move. Polling is useful, but it isn’t gospel. The smart approach is cautious optimism. We know polls can overstate support, and we know some of our vote bleeds to micro-parties who aren’t measured properly. Treating today’s numbers as tomorrow’s outcome is a mistake we won’t make.

The Broader Political Climate

Still, the ground is shifting. Conservatives are fed up with a weak Liberal Party that doesn’t stand for much anymore. Meanwhile, Australians are souring on Albanese as housing costs spiral, and government spending fuels inflation.

Albanese’s open-borders, high-immigration agenda is driving Australians into our camp. People see the destruction he’s inflicting on our way of life.

Australians are waking up to just how much the radical left despises this country, and they don’t like it.

This discontent creates fertile ground for One Nation’s agenda. For 30 years we’ve stayed true to our principles. Unlike the majors, we speak plainly and offer real solutions. And unlike the micro-parties, we have the structure and reach to make votes count.

Since the May election, our membership has grown by 60%. In the 24 hours following the brutal assassination of Charlie Kirk, our membership spiked another 5%.

Building for the Future

We’re not sitting idle waiting for election day. Branches are expanding nationwide. Our volunteer network is being reorganised and re-energised. Our MPs are out in communities, campaigning hard.

In the coming weeks, Senator Sean Bell will be in the Hunter. Pauline Hanson will join him before heading south to Tasmania and Victoria. Malcolm Roberts will be in Townsville and South Australia. Tyrone Whitten will campaign in the Northern Territory. All four senators will also campaign in the ACT.

Our fundraising for lower house campaigns is already breaking records. Many established branches have already hit their fundraising targets, two years ahead of schedule. Local policy development is robust, and campaign training is underway.

And the results are showing. The Sydney Morning Herald recently admitted:

“A statistically significant 5 percentage point boost in inner-city support for One Nation since the last election.
The Greens’ overall share of the national vote has held steady at 12 per cent, but its support in former inner-city strongholds has slipped 4 percentage points from 16 to 12 per cent.”

We see it ourselves. Inner-city branch meetings are packed with eager Australians. A fundraiser in Brisbane’s Lilley electorate will draw a huge crowd. As the Greens double down on their radical economics, Australia-hating, and divisive identity politics, more voters are walking away from them — and walking towards us.

The Bottom Line

Yes, One Nation is rising in the polls. But polls aren’t the finish line. They’re a snapshot, not the scoreboard

What matters is how we organise, how we campaign, and how we convert momentum into votes on election day.

That is where our focus lies. That is how One Nation will turn today’s numbers into tomorrow’s success.